You filled the seats. The flags came out, the "Let's go, Alex!" chants rolled around the OCBC Arena, and for one set it looked like the night would end the way we wanted. It did not. On Thursday, 24 September, Alex Eala lost her opening match at the Singapore Tennis Open to Russia's Tatiana Prozorova, 6-4, 5-7, 3-6, after three hours and nine minutes.
Masakit, pero kaya nating intindihin. If you are not a tennis person and the scoreline confused you, this guide breaks down what happened, one number at a time.
The match in one minute
Alex came in as the third seed, which meant she skipped the first round and started in the round of 16. Prozorova is world No. 180. Alex is No. 18. That is a gap of 162 places, so on paper this was Alex's match to lose.
Here is how the three sets went:
Set
Alex
Prozorova
What happened
1st
6
4
Prozorova led 3-1, then Alex won four games in a row and took the set after about an hour
2nd
5
7
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She made chances but did not cash in. Alex had 17 break points, five more than Prozorova. She converted six. Prozorova had 12 and converted seven. Think of break points as penalty kicks in football. Alex got more of them. Prozorova scored more.
It was no blowout. Across 231 points, Prozorova won 118 and Alex won 113. Flip three or four points at the right moments in the second set and we would be talking about a quarterfinal.
How big a surprise was this?
Big. It was Alex's first loss this year to a player ranked outside the top 100. Her closest call before Thursday was a loss to world No. 99 Alycia Parks at the Australian Open. Counting 2025, one defeat ranks as a bigger upset by the numbers: a loss to world No. 305 Claire Liu in Guangzhou last year.
For Prozorova, it was the biggest win of her career and her first against a top-40 player. She was in tears after match point.
Alex also came in cold. This was her first match since her US Open loss to Iva Jovic on 6 September, and the indoor court at Kallang plays slower than the outdoor hard courts where she has done her best work.
What the loss costs her
WTA ranking
Stays at No. 18
Ranking points earned
1
Prize money
US$13,005 (about S$17,000)
What a quarterfinal would have paid
US$35,000 and 108 points
Because Alex had a bye, losing her first match counts as a first-round exit for points and pay.
After the match, Alex gave Prozorova credit and said she and her team would "take the time to analyse, take the time to learn."
What comes next
There is a silver lining. Alex now gets extra rest before the Asian Games in Aichi-Nagoya, Japan, where tennis starts on Sunday, 27 September. She goes in as a gold-medal favourite in women's singles, with several top players skipping the Games for the China Open. She also plays mixed doubles. At the last Asian Games in Hangzhou, she took bronze in both events. The women's singles final is set for Friday, 2 October.
If you caught our guide to watching her in Kallang and made it to the OCBC Arena on Thursday, you saw a Filipina fight for three hours in front of a crowd that sounded like home. That part went right. Keep the flags handy. Nagoya is next, and the group chat will need you.
Alex led 4-2 and had a chance to pull away. Prozorova won five of the last six games
3rd
3
6
Prozorova broke serve, held her nerve, and closed it out
Tennis is best of three sets. Win two and you win the match. Alex won the first, then lost the next two.
The stats, in plain language
Tennis stat sheets look like accounting. They are simpler than they seem. Here are the numbers that decided this match, with a translation beside each one.
Stat
Alex
Prozorova
What it means
Total points won
113
118
Five points separated them over three hours. This was close
Aces
1
4
Serves so good the opponent cannot touch the ball. Free points
Double faults
7
3
Missing both serve attempts. Each one hands the point to the other side
First serves in
62%
63%
How often the first serve lands. Almost level
Points won on first serve
52%
64%
When your first serve lands, you should win most of those points. Alex won about half
Points won on second serve
46%
31%
Alex did better here, but the second serve is the weaker shot for everyone
Break points won
6 of 17
7 of 12
Chances to win a game on the other player's serve. Alex had more chances. Prozorova used hers better
What the numbers tell us
Three things stand out.
Alex lost this on serve. Seven double faults means seven points given away with no rally at all. In a match decided by five points, that is the difference. When her first serve did land, Alex won 52% of those points. Prozorova won 64% of hers. The serve is the one shot a player controls from start to finish, so analysts keep coming back to it. John McEnroe called Alex's serve a "liability" before the US Open.
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